Cotton supply remains abundant future trend is generally optimistic


In October, Xinjiang cotton purchase was carried out in an orderly manner under multi-party policy regulation. The cotton gin strictly controls the purchase price

, and the purchase price of seed cotton adjusts accordingly according to the trend of the cotton futures price, gradually slipping from the initial 7.5-7.8 yuan/kg t

o 7.2-7.4 yuan/kg. Recently, with the arrival of the cold wave, frequent rain and snow in Xinjiang, or the adverse impact on the cotton water content, horse value a

nd other indicators stacked in the field, coupled with the weakening of the cotton price, cotton farmers' reluctance to sell psychology has been greatly weakened,

 the cotton gin acquisition progress is quite fast, and the sale progress has reached 75.4%. In addition, due to the increase in the production capacity of gin mills, 

the daily processing volume of cotton is at a high level in recent years. According to the statistics of the national cotton trading market, as of November 13, the to

tal amount of lint processing in Xinjiang region was 2,336,300 tons, an increase of 48.69%.

In order to ensure the supply of raw materials for textile enterprises, China Reserve Cotton Management Co., Ltd. began to sell storage on July 31 and continued t

o November 14. This round of disposal of the total round of 884,700 tons of cotton, a total transaction rate of 71.81%, 447 companies participated in the auction t

ransaction. In addition to the disposal of storage and new cotton, the third largest source of cotton supply - imports, in the recent period also appeared a large in

crease. Cotton imports in September were 240,000 tons, an increase of 150,000 tons year-on-year and an increase of 60,000 tons month-on-month. Cotton import

s are expected to be high in the coming months due to the issuance of import sliding quotas and the measurement of the current cotton price differential.

Due to the expansion of textile production capacity and the previous high probability of opening, and the peak season orders are less than expected, the inventory

 of finished yarns continues to accumulate, occupying a lot of funds for textile enterprises. According to the data, as of November 10, the conversion days of yarn i

nventory in textile mills have risen to 31.4 days, which is a high level in the past few years. The social inventory is also rich, and the cotton yarn warehouse in Fosha

n and other regions of Guangdong is generally in a state of swelling storage. Under the pressure of inventory, textile mills and traders have begun to clear inventor

ies recently, and cotton yarn prices are under pressure.

The supply of cotton is abundant, the inventory of finished yarns of stacked textile enterprises and traders is at a historical high, the opening rate is gradually decli

ning, and the demand for raw material replenishment is weakened. After October, cotton prices fell sharply. From mid-October to mid-November, the price of the 

main contract of cotton futures fell by about 2000 yuan/ton. The current cotton futures contracts are basically at 15,500-15,900 yuan/ton, which is not far from the

 historical average. If the cotton price is at a historically high level in the new cotton listing stage, it will compress the industrial profits of the subsequent links of th

e industrial chain, which is not conducive to the subsequent healthy development of the industry. Therefore, the current cotton price falls in the new cotton listing 

stage, which is beneficial to the development of the textile industry in the next year.